Photo/ Nika Ksovreli
National Bank of Georgia (NBG) expects economic growth throughout the frame of 4 percent.
According to your central bank, the increase will probably be basically conditioned by increase of total consumption and investments, which will be held by the fiscal stimulus, infrastructural projects and business environment improvement. Forecast made by the exports of NBG envisages that impact of external shocks will disappear in 2017, but negative factors impacting on the online export will likely be still sustained. Increase of net export will likely be slightly improved, but it surely will continue to have an unfavorable contribution in GDP growth.
The bank notes, that sharpened political and economical overuse injury in the vicinity includes a negative impact on websites export, which is reflected on Georgian export and remittances. When it comes to chances of GDP forecast, external sector occupies the standard place. Namely, about the background of political tension, if the mentioned shock is deepened much more than expected, the mentioned shock will likely be sent to Georgia, then economic growth shall be declined comparing for the forecast.
According to NBG, USD exchange rate over the international foreign currency industry is baring risks at the same time, which reflects on the exchange rates of Georgian trade partners and has now an impact on GEL exchange rate. Positive impacts could possibly be stripped away from the Free Trade Agreement with the EU or acceleration of investment projects.